The record for this issue
Hot inflation, lower yields.
81 claims in the draft, each tested by a second agent against the page it cites. 78 held; 3 did not and were fixed or cut before this went out.
-
01
dekconfirmed
CPI and PPI both ran hot
The page says “all items index increased 0.6 percent ... in September; PPI: final demand increased 1.3 percent in September”
-
02
dekconfirmed
Treasury yields still fell on the week
The page says “Par curve rows: 10/09/2026 2Yr 4.80, 10Yr 5.24, 30Yr 5.60; 10/15/2026 2Yr 4.77, 10Yr 5.10, 30Yr 5.43; 10/16/2026 2Yr 4.74, 10Yr 5.09, 30Yr 5.43”
-
03
dekconfirmed
The Fed went quiet on Saturday, ten days before it meets
The page says “blackout begins at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time the second Saturday before a meeting; Fed calendar: October 27-28 (Saturday Oct. 17 is the second Saturday before; 10 days)”
-
04
summaryconfirmed
Oil near $110
The page says “Brent crude oil briefly touched $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May”
-
05
summaryconfirmed
a 20-year auction ahead
The page says “20-Year Bond: announcement 2026-10-15, auction 2026-10-21, settlement 2026-10-23”
-
06
art altconfirmed
Gasoline labelled +9.1%
The page says “The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September”
-
07
The storyconfirmed
10-year ended Fri Oct. 16 at 5.09% in the par curve
The page says “Par curve rows: 10/09/2026 2Yr 4.80, 10Yr 5.24, 30Yr 5.60; 10/15/2026 2Yr 4.77, 10Yr 5.10, 30Yr 5.43; 10/16/2026 2Yr 4.74, 10Yr 5.09, 30Yr 5.43”
-
08
The storyconfirmed
10-year a basis point under Thursday
The page says “10/15/2026 10 Yr 5.10; 10/16/2026 10 Yr 5.09”
-
09
The storyconfirmed
10-year 15 bp under the 5.24% of a week earlier
The page says “10/09/2026 10 Yr 5.24”
-
10
The storyconfirmed
Par curve is a 3:30 p.m. ET quote
The page says “obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM each trading day”
-
11
The storyconfirmed
Two-year 4.74%, down three on the day and six on the week
The page says “2 Yr: 10/09 4.80, 10/15 4.77, 10/16 4.74”
-
12
The storyconfirmed
30-year held at 5.43%
The page says “30 Yr: 10/15 5.43, 10/16 5.43”
-
13
The storyconfirmed
30-year 17 bp below prior Friday's 5.60%
The page says “30 Yr: 10/09 5.60”
-
14
The storyconfirmed
September CPI out Wednesday, Oct. 14
The page says “CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - SEPTEMBER 2026 ... Wednesday, October 14, 2026”
-
15
The storyconfirmed
CPI rose 0.6% on the month
The page says “increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September”
-
16
The storyconfirmed
3.7% over the year, up from 3.4% in August
The page says “the all items index increased 3.7 percent ... 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August”
-
17
The storyconfirmed
Gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for over half the monthly increase
The page says “The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase”
-
18
The storyconfirmed
Energy index up 20.4% over 12 months
The page says “The energy index increased 20.4 percent for the 12 months ending September”
-
19
The storyconfirmed
Core rose 0.3%, the same as August
The page says “The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did in August”
-
20
The storyconfirmed
Core 2.6% over the year
The page says “The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year”
-
21
The storyconfirmed
PPI released Thursday
The page says “PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - SEPTEMBER 2026 ... Thursday, October 15, 2026”
-
22
The storyconfirmed
PPI final demand up 1.3% in September and 6.3% over the year
The page says “final demand increased 1.3 percent in September ... climbed 6.3 percent for the 12 months ended in September”
-
23
The storyconfirmed
Energy goods up 10.8% in the month
The page says “the index for final demand energy, which jumped 10.8 percent (BLS's name is 'final demand energy')”
-
24
The storyconfirmed
Final demand less foods, energy and trade services up 0.5%
The page says “Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.5 percent in September”
-
25
The storyconfirmed
Core held at 0.3% for a second month
The page says “rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did in August”
-
26
The storyconfirmed
S&P 500 lost 1.1% on Friday and the Nasdaq 2.1%
The page says “The S&P 500 fell 1.1% ... The Nasdaq composite ... sank 2.1%”
-
27
The storyconfirmed
Nasdaq's worst week since June, per AP
The page says “posted its first weekly loss in five weeks and its worst since June”
-
28
The storyconfirmed
Chipmakers leading
The page says “Among the biggest decliners were chip companies”
-
29
The storyconfirmed
The stock market sold its biggest names
The page says “a choppy week for chipmakers and other big tech stocks central to the artificial intelligence industry (Meta, Alphabet among decliners)”
-
30
The storyconfirmed
Fed raised a quarter point in September to 3.75% to 4.00%
The page says “decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent”
-
31
The storyconfirmed
AP notes first increase in three years
The page says “its first increase in three years”
-
32
The storyconfirmed
Effective rate printed 3.88% on Thursday
The page says “effectiveDate 2026-10-15, percentRate 3.88”
-
33
The storyconfirmed
Traders expect no change at the Oct. 27-28 meeting
The page says “Wall Street traders expect the Fed will keep its short-term rate unchanged at its policy meeting this month (calendar: October 27-28)”
-
34
The storyconfirmed
CME odds of a December increase 74.3%, up from 50.2% a month earlier
The page says “the odds of a rate increase at the December meeting have jumped to 74.3% from 50.2% a month ago”
-
35
The storyconfirmed
Chair Kevin Warsh in Bangkok for a meeting of financial leaders gave no new signal
The page says “Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh offered no fresh signals ... while attending a meeting of financial leaders in Bangkok”
-
36
The storyconfirmed
Blackout began midnight Oct. 17, runs to end of Oct. 29
The page says “begins at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time the second Saturday before a meeting ... ends at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time the day after a meeting”
-
37
The storyconfirmed
Brent Dec settled $109.86, up $3.94 or 3.7%
The page says “Brent for December delivery rose 3.94 U.S. dollars (3.72 percent) to settle at 109.86 dollars a barrel”
-
38
The storyconfirmed
Brent briefly touched $110 for the first time since May
The page says “Brent crude oil briefly touched $110 a barrel on Friday for the first time since May”
-
39
The storyconfirmed
November WTI settled $101.41, up $3.44
The page says “WTI for November delivery rose 3.44 U.S. dollars (3.51 percent) to settle at 101.41 dollars a barrel”
-
40
The storyconfirmed
Saudi-led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Yanbu
The page says “a Saudi-led military coalition said it had intercepted a ballistic missile headed for the Red Sea city of Yanbu”
-
41
The storyconfirmed
Yanbu lets the kingdom export crude without passing Hormuz
The page says “allowing the kingdom to ship crude to international markets via the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz”
-
42
The storyconfirmed
Reuters reports Iran has largely throttled Hormuz since February
The page says “has been largely throttled by Iran since the US and Israel launched attacks on the country in February”
-
43
The storyconfirmed
AAA national average gasoline $4.33 vs $3.06 a year ago
The page says “The national average for gasoline is at $4.33 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA ... the $3.06 a gallon from a year ago”
-
44
The storyconfirmed
Fed silent for the next 11 days
The page says “ends at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time the day after a meeting (Oct. 19 through Oct. 29 = 11 days)”
-
45
The storyconfirmed
Housing starts on Tuesday
The page says “New Residential Construction, October 20, 2026, 8:30 AM, September 2026”
-
46
The storyconfirmed
20-year bond on Wednesday
The page says “20-Year Bond auction 2026-10-21”
-
47
The storyconfirmed
13- and 26-week bills this morning
The page says “13-Week Bill and 26-Week Bill: auction 2026-10-19”
-
48
The storyconfirmed
Oct. 16: 2-yr 4.74, 10-yr 5.09, 30-yr 5.43
The page says “10/16/2026 2 Yr 4.74, 10 Yr 5.09, 30 Yr 5.43”
-
49
The storyconfirmed
Oct. 9: 2-yr 4.80, 10-yr 5.24, 30-yr 5.60
The page says “10/09/2026 2 Yr 4.80, 10 Yr 5.24, 30 Yr 5.60”
-
50
The storyconfirmed
All three tenors lower on the week; long end fell most
The page says “2 Yr -6, 10 Yr -15, 30 Yr -17 bp from 10/09 to 10/16”
-
51
The storyconfirmed
Gasoline 9.1, energy 5.2, all items 0.6, core 0.3
The page says “gasoline rose 9.1 percent; energy index increased 5.2 percent over the month; all items 0.6 percent; less food and energy rose 0.3 percent”
-
52
The storyconfirmed
Gasoline over half the increase; core 0.3% for a second month
The page says “accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase ... as it did in August”
-
53
The storyconfirmed
Yanbu lets Saudi crude reach the sea without Hormuz
The page says “Yanbu is a key outlet for Saudi oil exports ... bypassing the Strait of Hormuz”
-
54
The storyconfirmed
Missile track ending short of Yanbu (intercepted)
The page says “intercepted a ballistic missile headed for the Red Sea city of Yanbu”
-
55
The tape before the open, item 1confirmed
2-year 4.74%, -3 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 16
The page says “2 Yr: 10/15 4.77, 10/16 4.74”
-
56
The tape before the open, item 2confirmed
10-year 5.09%, -1 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 16
The page says “10 Yr: 10/15 5.10, 10/16 5.09”
-
57
The tape before the open, item 3confirmed
30-year 5.43%, unch., 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 16
The page says “30 Yr: 10/15 5.43, 10/16 5.43”
-
58
The tape before the open, item 4confirmed
2s10s 35 bp, +2 bp
The page says “10/16: 5.09-4.74=35 bp; 10/15: 5.10-4.77=33 bp”
-
59
The tape before the open, item 5confirmed
Fed funds effective 3.88%, unch., Oct. 15
The page says “2026-10-15 3.88; 2026-10-14 3.88”
-
60
The tape before the open, item 6confirmed
EUR/USD 1.1253, +0.0045, Oct. 16
The page says “15 Oct: 1.1208; 16 Oct: 1.1253”
- 61 unsupported
-
62
The tape before the open, item 7confirmed
Brent Dec $109.86, +$3.94, settlement Oct. 16
The page says “December delivery rose 3.94 U.S. dollars ... to settle at 109.86 dollars a barrel”
-
63
The tape before the open, item 8confirmed
WTI Nov $101.41, +$3.44, settlement Oct. 16
The page says “November delivery rose 3.44 U.S. dollars ... to settle at 101.41 dollars a barrel”
-
64
The tape before the open, item 9confirmed
Gold $4,168, +$21, 9:05 a.m. ET Oct. 16
The page says “The price of gold stood at $4,168 per ounce as of 9:05 a.m. Eastern Time on October 16, 2026. This marks a $21 increase”
-
65
The tape before the open, item 10confirmed
Nikkei 225 64,916.70, -0.62%, Tokyo close Oct. 19
The page says “Oct 19, 2026 close 64,916.70; Oct 16 close 65,324.29 (-0.62%)”
-
66
The tape before the open, item 10confirmed
Tokyo close is 2:30 a.m. ET
The page says “afternoon session is from 12:30 pm to 3:30 pm (3:30 p.m. JST = 2:30 a.m. EDT)”
-
67
The tape before the openunsupported
New York Fed publishes each day's rate at about 9 a.m. the next business day
-
68
The tape before the openconfirmed
Nikkei change is against Friday's close of 65,324.29
The page says “Oct 16, 2026 close 65,324.29”
-
69
The morning in four, item 1confirmed
30-year -17 to 5.43, 10-year -15 to 5.09, 2-year -6; 2s10s +2 to 35
The page says “Par curve rows: 10/09/2026 2Yr 4.80, 10Yr 5.24, 30Yr 5.60; 10/15/2026 2Yr 4.77, 10Yr 5.10, 30Yr 5.43; 10/16/2026 2Yr 4.74, 10Yr 5.09, 30Yr 5.43”
-
70
The morning in four, item 2confirmed
CoreWeave ~$50bn debt, insurance ~1,000 bp, ~63% five-year default probability per LSEG, from ~30% a year ago
The page says “about $50 bln in debt ... risen to around 1,000 basis points, implying a nearly 63% chance of default in five years ... up from about 30% a year ago”
-
71
The morning in four, item 3confirmed
Retail +0.8% m/m, +6.3% y/y; gasoline stations +28.1%
The page says “up 0.8 percent from the previous month ... up 6.3 percent from September 2025; Table 2 gasoline stations +28.1% Sep 2026 vs Sep 2025 (year-on-year; monthly was +6.4%)”
-
72
The morning in four, item 3confirmed
Industrial production +0.7%, capacity utilization 76.9%
The page says “Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in September ... Capacity utilization moved up to 76.9 percent”
-
73
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
Nikkei 225 closed 64,916.70, off 0.62%
The page says “Oct 19, 2026 close 64,916.70 vs 65,324.29”
-
74
The morning in four, item 4unsupported
'Tokyo followed New York down' / fell 'after Friday's U.S. technology sell-off' (causal link)
-
75
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
ECB euro reference rate rose to $1.1253 Friday from $1.1208
The page says “15 Oct: 1.1208; 16 Oct: 1.1253”
-
76
What to watch, item 1confirmed
13/26-week bills announced Thu Oct. 15, settle Thu Oct. 22, auction Mon Oct. 19
The page says “13-Week Bill / 26-Week Bill: announcement 2026-10-15, auction 2026-10-19, settlement 2026-10-22”
-
77
What to watch, item 1confirmed
Front end at 4.26% for three months
The page says “10/16/2026 3 Mo 4.26”
-
78
What to watch, item 2confirmed
Blackout rule and Oct. 17 through Oct. 29 for the Oct. 27-28 meeting
The page says “12:00 a.m. Eastern Time the second Saturday before a meeting ... 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time the day after a meeting; calendar October 27-28”
-
79
What to watch, item 3confirmed
Housing starts and permits Tue 10/20, 8:30 a.m. ET, September report
The page says “New Residential Construction: October 20, 2026, 8:30 AM, September 2026”
-
80
What to watch, item 4confirmed
20-year auction Wed 10/21, announced Oct. 15, settles Oct. 23
The page says “20-Year Bond: announcement 2026-10-15, auction 2026-10-21, settlement 2026-10-23”
-
81
What to watch, item 5confirmed
FOMC Oct. 27-28 has no SEP; next with projections Dec. 8-9
The page says “October 27-28 (no asterisk); December 8-9*; * Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections”
The checker's notes
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