The record for this issue
Oil takes the 10-year back to 5%.
92 claims in the draft, each tested by a second agent against the page it cites, on Oct. 26, 2026. 87 held; 5 did not and were fixed or cut before this went out.
-
01
titleconfirmed
10-year back to 5%
The page says “10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
02
dekconfirmed
Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday
The page says “Brent's December contract settled at $116.72 after rising 3.1% on the day (published Fri Oct 23, 2026, 4:06 PM)”
-
03
dekconfirmed
Treasury yields gave back part of Thursday's drop; 10-year closed at 5.00%
The page says “10/21/2026 row: 2 Yr 4.81, 5 Yr 4.95, 10 Yr 5.13, 30 Yr 5.42; 10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
04
dekconfirmed
Inside the 5-year, the inflation part of the yield rose for a second day
The page says “Nominal 5Y 4.95/4.78/4.82 minus real 5Y 2.55/2.33/2.34 = 2.40/2.45/2.48 (Oct 21/22/23)”
-
05
dekconfirmed
The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday
The page says “'October 27-28'”
-
06
summaryconfirmed
10-year closed Friday at 5.00%, up 4 bp; Brent settled at $116.72
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33; Rigzone: Brent settled at $116.72”
-
07
summaryconfirmed
Fed, Bank of Canada, ECB and Bank of Japan meet this week
The page says “Fed 'October 27-28'; BoC Oct 28 'Interest Rate Announcement' 09:45 ET; ECB 28/10 and 29/10/2026 monetary policy meeting; BoJ 'Oct. 29 (Thurs.), 30 (Fri.)'”
Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar), at the passage · whole page
-
08
The storyconfirmed
10-year closed Friday at 5.00% from 4.96% Thursday on Treasury's 3:30 p.m. par curve
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33; 'obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM…”
-
09
The storyconfirmed
2-year rose to 4.69% from 4.65%
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
10
The storyconfirmed
30-year rose to 5.33% from 5.29%
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
11
The storyconfirmed
2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year each rose 4 bp
The page says “4.65->4.69, 4.78->4.82, 4.96->5.00, 5.29->5.33”
- 12 confirmed
-
13
The storyconfirmed
3-month bill unchanged at 4.22%
The page says “3 Mo 4.22 on both 10/22 and 10/23”
-
14
The storyconfirmed
10-year took back about a quarter of Thursday's 17 bp fall
The page says “10/21/2026 row: 2 Yr 4.81, 5 Yr 4.95, 10 Yr 5.13, 30 Yr 5.42; 10 Yr 5.13->4.96 = -17 bp; +4 bp Friday = 24%”
-
15
The storyconfirmed
December Brent settled at $116.72, up 3.1% on the day
The page says “Brent's December contract settled at $116.72 after rising 3.1% on the day”
-
16
The storyconfirmed
Brent up more than 6% on the week
The page says “'more than 6% this week'”
-
17
The storyconfirmed
WTI settled at $103.27, up 3.8% (Bloomberg)
The page says “WTI's December contract settled at $103.27 after climbing 3.8%”
-
18
The storyconfirmed
Houthi claims of attacks on the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu
The page says “Iran-backed Houthis 'claimed recent attacks on the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu'”
-
19
The storyconfirmed
U.S.-Iran war nearing its ninth month
The page says “'the US-Iran war, which is now approaching its ninth month'”
-
20
The storyconfirmed
traders unwilling to stay short over the weekend
The page says “traders were 'reluctant to hold short positions ahead of the weekend, when markets are closed'”
-
21
The storyconfirmed
Dow lost 1.2% (AP)
The page says “'The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2 per cent'”
-
22
The storyconfirmed
S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,623.68
The page says “'The S&P 500 fell 0.5 per cent'; closed at 7,623.68 after losing 39.75 points”
-
23
The storyconfirmed
S&P 500's second weekly loss in a row
The page says “'The index posted its second-straight weekly loss.'”
-
24
The storyconfirmed
5-year nominal yield rose 4 bp to 4.82%
The page says “5 Yr 4.78 (10/22) -> 4.82 (10/23)”
-
25
The storyconfirmed
5-year TIPS real yield rose 1 bp to 2.34%
The page says “5 YR 2.33 (10/22) -> 2.34 (10/23)”
-
26
The storyconfirmed
5-year breakeven widened to 2.48% from 2.45%
The page says “4.82-2.34=2.48; 4.78-2.33=2.45 (issue's arithmetic, stated as such in numbers note)”
-
27
The storyconfirmed
On Thursday the nominal 5-year fell 17 bp
The page says “5 Yr 4.95 (10/21) -> 4.78 (10/22)”
-
28
The storyconfirmed
Thursday's breakeven rose from 2.40%
The page says “10/21: 4.95-2.55=2.40 -> 10/22: 2.45”
- 29 confirmed
-
30
The storyconfirmed
Target range 3.75%-4.00% since a quarter-point increase on Sept. 17
The page says “2026 row: 'September 17 | 25 | 0 | 3.75-4.00'”
-
31
The storyconfirmed
Effective rate printed 3.88% on Thursday
The page says “effectiveDate 2026-10-22 percentRate 3.88 targetRateFrom 3.75 targetRateTo 4.00”
-
32
The storyconfirmed
2-year at 4.69% sits 69 bp above the top of the range
The page says “4.69 - 4.00 = 0.69”
-
33
The storyconfirmed
AP: Wall Street expects a hold this week and leans heavily toward another increase in December
The page says “'Wall Street expects the central bank to hold rates steady at its meeting next week' and 'is leaning heavily toward another rate hike in December'”
-
34
The storyconfirmed
This meeting carries no new economic projections
The page says “'October 27-28' has no asterisk; asterisk = 'Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections'”
Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar), at the passage · whole page
-
35
The storyconfirmed
Blackout runs until the day after the meeting ends
The page says “'end at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time the day after a meeting'”
Federal Reserve (blackout rule), at the passage · whole page
-
36
The storyconfirmed
Nikkei 225 down 0.8% at 62,189.65
The page says “'Tokyo's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.8% to 62,189.65.'”
- 37 unsupported
-
38
The storyconfirmed
Kospi fell 1.5%
The page says “'The Kospi in Seoul dropped 1.5% to 5,469.47.'”
-
39
The storyconfirmed
AP's 3:46 a.m. update
The page says “'Updated: October 26, 2026 at 3:46 AM' (modified_time 2026-10-26T07:46:58Z)”
-
40
The storyconfirmed
U.S. crude down 1.8% at $101.37
The page says “'U.S. benchmark crude sank 1.8% to $101.37 a barrel.'”
-
41
The storyconfirmed
Brent down 1.4%
The page says “'Brent crude... fell 1.4% to $110.12 a barrel.'”
-
42
The storyconfirmed
U.S. stock futures edging higher
The page says “'U.S. futures edged higher.'”
-
43
The storyconfirmed
Treasury sells 2-year notes today
The page says “'2-Year NOTE Thursday, October 22, 2026 Monday, October 26, 2026 Monday, November 02, 2026'”
-
44
The storyconfirmed
First of three note auctions this week
The page says “2-Year NOTE Mon Oct 26; 5-Year NOTE Tue Oct 27; 7-Year NOTE Thu Oct 29 (a 2-Year FRN also auctions Wed Oct 28, listed under 'Other securities')”
-
45
The storyconfirmed
September PCE on Thursday
The page says “'October 29 8:30 AM' | 'Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026'”
-
46
The storyconfirmed
AP said PCE expected near 3.7%
The page says “PCE index 'is expected to show that inflation rose at a 3.7 per cent rate in September'”
-
47
The storyconfirmed
Oct. 22: 3-month 4.22, 2-year 4.65, 5-year 4.78, 10-year 4.96, 30-year 5.29
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29”
-
48
The storyconfirmed
Oct. 23: 3-month 4.22, 2-year 4.69, 5-year 4.82, 10-year 5.00, 30-year 5.33
The page says “10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
49
The storyconfirmed
Par yields at 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 22 and Oct. 23
The page says “'obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM each trading day.'”
-
50
The storyconfirmed
Bill held; 2-year through 30-year each rose 4 bp
The page says “3 Mo 4.22 both days; 2/5/10/30 Yr each +0.04”
-
51
The storyconfirmed
A Treasury yield's real part is what TIPS show
The page says “'Par real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated'”
-
52
The storyunsupported
The rest is the breakeven, the inflation the market prices in; oil feeds the second part
-
53
The storyconfirmed
Nominal 5-year: Oct 21 4.95, Oct 22 4.78, Oct 23 4.82
The page says “5 Yr: 4.95, 4.78, 4.82”
-
54
The storyconfirmed
Real 5-year: 2.55, 2.33, 2.34
The page says “Real 5 YR: 10/21 2.55, 10/22 2.33, 10/23 2.34”
-
55
The storyconfirmed
Breakeven: 2.40, 2.45, 2.48
The page says “4.95-2.55=2.40; 4.78-2.33=2.45; 4.82-2.34=2.48”
-
56
The storyconfirmed
Nominal and TIPS real par yields at 3:30 p.m. ET; breakeven is nominal minus real
The page says “'obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM each trading day.'”
-
57
The storyconfirmed
Nominal and real fell Thursday and rose Friday; breakeven rose both days
The page says “Nominal 4.95->4.78->4.82; real 2.55->2.33->2.34; breakeven 2.40->2.45->2.48”
-
58
The tape before the open, item 1confirmed
2-year 4.69%, +4 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 23
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33; 'obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM…”
-
59
The tape before the open, item 2confirmed
10-year 5.00%, +4 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 23
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
60
The tape before the open, item 3confirmed
30-year 5.33%, +4 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 23
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
61
The tape before the open, item 4confirmed
2s10s 31 bp, 0 bp change
The page says “5.00-4.69=31 bp; 4.96-4.65=31 bp”
-
62
The tape before the open, item 5confirmed
5-year breakeven 2.48%, +3 bp
The page says “4.82-2.34=2.48; prior 4.78-2.33=2.45”
-
63
The tape before the open, item 6confirmed
Fed funds effective 3.88%, 0 bp, Oct. 22
The page says “2026-10-22 3.88; 2026-10-21 3.88”
-
64
The tape before the open, item 7confirmed
EUR/USD (ECB) 1.1193, -0.0012, ECB reference rate Oct. 23
The page says “23 October 2026: 1.1193; 22 October 2026: 1.1205”
-
65
The tape before the open, item 8confirmed
Brent (Dec.) $116.72, +3.1%, settlement Oct. 23
The page says “Brent's December contract settled at $116.72 after rising 3.1% on the day”
-
66
The tape before the open, item 9confirmed
WTI (Dec.) $103.27, +3.8%, settlement Oct. 23
The page says “WTI's December contract settled at $103.27 after climbing 3.8%”
-
67
The tape before the open, item 10unsupported
Nikkei 225 62,189.65, -0.8%, as_of 'Tokyo close, Oct. 26'
-
68
The tape before the openconfirmed
Fed funds is Thursday's rate
The page says “latest record in the cited range: effectiveDate 2026-10-22, 3.88”
- 69 unsupported
-
70
The morning in four, item 1confirmed
2-, 5-, 10-, 30-year each rose 4 bp; 3-month bill did not move
The page says “10/22/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.65, 5 Yr 4.78, 10 Yr 4.96, 30 Yr 5.29; 10/23/2026 row: 3 Mo 4.22, 2 Yr 4.69, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”
-
71
The morning in four, item 2confirmed
Freddie Mac 30-year fixed 7.32% on Oct. 22, from 7.40% a week earlier
The page says “'The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.32% as of October 22, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 7.40%.'”
-
72
The morning in four, item 2confirmed
The survey came out before Friday's rise in yields
The page says “Rates labelled 'as of 10/22/2026' (Thursday), before the Oct. 23 yield rise”
-
73
The morning in four, item 3confirmed
BEA publishes Q3 GDP and September personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. Oct. 29
The page says “'October 29 8:30 AM' 'GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026'; 'Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026'”
-
74
The morning in four, item 3confirmed
AP said PCE price index expected to show 3.7% rate
The page says “'is expected to show that inflation rose at a 3.7 per cent rate in September'”
-
75
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
Bank of Canada decides Wednesday at 9:45 a.m.
The page says “October 28, 2026: 'Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report' at '09:45 (ET)'”
-
76
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
Market odds near 78% on Friday, per The Canadian Press citing LSEG
The page says “'Financial market odds for a rate hike stood at nearly 78 per cent as of Friday afternoon, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.' (published 2026-10-26T08:00Z = 4:00 a.m. ET)”
-
77
The morning in four, item 4unsupported
The 78% odds are for a quarter-point increase
-
78
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
Policy rate currently 2.25%
The page says “'The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent for seven consecutive meetings.'”
-
79
What to watch, item 1confirmed
13- and 26-week bills and 2-year note auction today (Mon Oct 26)
The page says “13-Week BILL, 26-Week BILL, 2-Year NOTE: auction Monday, October 26, 2026”
-
80
What to watch, item 1confirmed
2-year settles Nov. 2
The page says “2-Year NOTE ... settlement 'Monday, November 02, 2026'”
-
81
What to watch, item 1confirmed
5-year Tuesday, 7-year Thursday
The page says “5-Year NOTE auction Tuesday, October 27; 7-Year NOTE auction Thursday, October 29”
-
82
What to watch, item 2confirmed
October TMOS Monday at 9:30 a.m. Central (10:30 a.m. ET)
The page says “October release 'Monday, October 26'; 'Release (9:30 a.m. CT)'”
-
83
What to watch, item 3confirmed
No BLS release Monday
The page says “Calendar cells for Oct 26 and Oct 27 empty”
-
84
What to watch, item 3confirmed
No BEA release Monday
The page says “No release listed for Monday, October 26; next releases October 29”
-
85
What to watch, item 3confirmed
No Census release Monday
The page says “No indicator releases scheduled October 26, 2026”
-
86
What to watch, item 3confirmed
Census has durable goods and new home sales on Tuesday
The page says “Oct 27: 'Advance Report on Durable Goods...' 8:30 AM; 'New Residential Sales' 10:00 AM”
-
87
What to watch, item 4confirmed
FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday
The page says “'October 27-28'”
-
88
What to watch, item 4confirmed
Bank of Canada announces Wednesday
The page says “October 28, 2026 Interest Rate Announcement”
-
89
What to watch, item 4confirmed
ECB meets Wednesday and Thursday
The page says “28/10/2026 monetary policy meeting (Day 1); 29/10/2026 (Day 2), followed by press conference”
-
90
What to watch, item 4confirmed
Bank of Japan meets Thursday and Friday
The page says “'Oct. 29 (Thurs.), 30 (Fri.)'”
-
91
What to watch, item 5confirmed
Blackout until the day after the Oct. 27-28 meeting
The page says “'end at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time the day after a meeting'”
Federal Reserve (blackout rule), at the passage · whole page
-
92
What to watch, item 5confirmed
Blackout began Oct. 17
The page says “'begin at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time the second Saturday before a meeting'; meeting Tue Oct 27 -> second Saturday before = Oct 17”
The checker's notes
- No fact in the draft post-dates 4:30 a.m. ET Oct. 26: latest sources are AP via WSLS (updated 3:46 a.m. ET) and Canadian Press via BOE Report (4:00 a.m. ET); ECB page lists Oct. 26 with no rate yet.
- No political opinion found; the U.S.-Iran war and Houthi claims are reported as events with Bloomberg attribution. No conduct issues: the closing conditional outlook in paragraph 5 is impersonal analysis, which docs/COMPLIANCE.md allows on the Markets desk.
- For the editor: the AP put the Friday 10-year at 4.99% (late trading) vs Treasury's 5.00% 3:30 p.m. par value; the draft correctly cites Treasury.
- The Fed's FOMC calendar lists the September meeting as Sept. 15-16; the open-market table dates the increase Sept. 17 (effective date). The draft matches the cited page.
- The 2-year FRN auction (Wed Oct 28) is not counted among the 'three note auctions'; defensible because the schedule lists it under 'Other securities'.
Content from the New York Fed: © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
Data from the Bank of Canada, used under its terms of use.
Source: European Central Bank.
Source: Bank of Japan.
Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.