The record for this issue
A flatter curve walks into Fed day.
66 claims in the draft, each tested by a second agent against the page it cites, on Oct. 28, 2026. 65 held; 1 did not and were fixed or cut before this went out.
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01
dekconfirmed
The 2-year Treasury rose to 4.70% on Tuesday
The page says “10/26/2026 2 Yr 4.68; 10/27/2026 2 Yr 4.70”
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02
dekconfirmed
the 10-year slipped to 4.99%
The page says “10/26/2026 10 Yr 5.00; 10/27/2026 10 Yr 4.99”
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03
dekconfirmed
narrowing the gap to 29 basis points
The page says “10/27: 10 Yr 4.99 minus 2 Yr 4.70 = 0.29 (arithmetic from the table)”
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04
dekconfirmed
The Fed decides today
The page says “2026 meetings: ... October 27-28”
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05
dekconfirmed
the Bank of Canada announces at 9:45 a.m. ET
The page says “October 28, 2026 – 09:45 ET Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report”
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06
summaryconfirmed
The 2s10s spread narrowed 3 bp to 29 bp on Tuesday
The page says “10/26: 5.00 - 4.68 = 32 bp; 10/27: 4.99 - 4.70 = 29 bp”
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07
summaryconfirmed
SOFR printed 3.93% on Monday
The page says “SOFR effectiveDate 2026-10-26 percentRate 3.93”
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08
summaryconfirmed
The Fed and the Bank of Canada decide today
The page says “October 28, 2026 – 09:45 ET Interest Rate Announcement; FOMC calendar lists October 27-28”
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09
art svg / art altconfirmed
Direction of Tuesday's moves: 2-year up, 10-year down, illustrated below an FOMC pediment
The page says “2 Yr 4.68 -> 4.70 (up); 10 Yr 5.00 -> 4.99 (down). The art states 'DIRECTION OF TUESDAY'S MOVES, NOT LEVELS' and 'AGENT-DRAWN ILLUSTRATION'”
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10
The storyconfirmed
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting ends today, Oct. 28
The page says “October 27-28”
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11
The storyconfirmed
The range has been 3.75% to 4.00%
The page says “September 17, 2026 | 25 | 0 | 3.75-4.00”
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12
The storyconfirmed
since a quarter-point increase on Sept. 17
The page says “September 17, 2026 | Increase 25 | Decrease 0 | 3.75-4.00”
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13
The storyconfirmed
the effective rate printed 3.88% on Monday, Oct. 26, the New York Fed reported
The page says “EFFR 2026-10-26 3.88”
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14
The storyconfirmed
This meeting carries no Summary of Economic Projections
The page says “October 27-28 (no asterisk); '* Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.'”
Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar), at the passage · whole page
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15
The storyconfirmed
the Dec. 8-9 meeting does [carry an SEP]
The page says “December 8-9*”
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16
The storyconfirmed
the 2-year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.70%
The page says “2 Yr 4.68 (10/26) -> 4.70 (10/27)”
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17
The storyconfirmed
the 10-year slipped 1, to 4.99%
The page says “10 Yr 5.00 -> 4.99”
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18
The storyconfirmed
the 2s10s spread narrowed 3 basis points to 29
The page says “32 bp (10/26) -> 29 bp (10/27), from the table”
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19
The storyconfirmed
The 1-year rose 3, to 4.50%
The page says “1 Yr 4.47 -> 4.50”
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20
The storyconfirmed
The 5-year fell 2, to 4.82%
The page says “5 Yr 4.84 -> 4.82”
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21
The storyconfirmed
on the day Treasury auctioned 5-year notes
The page says “Note, 5-Year, 91282CRT0, auction_date 2026-10-27, issue_date 2026-11-02”
Treasury (Fiscal Data auctions), at the passage · whole page
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22
The storyconfirmed
the 30-year eased 1, to 5.30%
The page says “30 Yr 5.31 -> 5.30”
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23
The storyconfirmed
The 5-year TIPS real yield held at 2.37%
The page says “Par real curve 5 YR: 2.37 (10/26), 2.37 (10/27)”
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24
The storyconfirmed
the 5-year breakeven slipped to 2.45% from 2.47%
The page says “10/27: 4.82 - 2.37 = 2.45; 10/26: 4.84 - 2.37 = 2.47 (nominal and real par tables)”
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25
The storyconfirmed
its second daily decline after 2.48% on Friday
The page says “10/22: 4.78-2.33=2.45; 10/23: 4.82-2.34=2.48; 10/26: 2.47; 10/27: 2.45, so two declines after Friday's 2.48”
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26
The storyconfirmed
At 10 years, the real yield fell 2 basis points to 2.64%
The page says “10 YR 2.66 (10/26) -> 2.64 (10/27)”
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27
The storyconfirmed
the [10-year] breakeven edged up to 2.35%
The page says “10/26: 5.00-2.66=2.34; 10/27: 4.99-2.64=2.35”
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28
The storyconfirmed
SOFR was 3.93% on Monday
The page says “SOFR 2026-10-26 3.93”
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29
The storyconfirmed
up from 3.92% on Friday
The page says “SOFR 2026-10-23 3.92”
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30
The storyconfirmed
and 3.90% on Oct. 22
The page says “SOFR 2026-10-22 3.90”
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31
The storyconfirmed
on $3,086 billion of volume
The page says “SOFR 2026-10-26 volumeInBillions 3086”
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32
The storyconfirmed
The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% on all three days
The page says “EFFR 2026-10-22 3.88; 2026-10-23 3.88; 2026-10-26 3.88”
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33
The storyconfirmed
the gap between the two widened from 2 basis points to 5
The page says “Oct. 22: 3.90-3.88 = 2 bp; Oct. 26: 3.93-3.88 = 5 bp”
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34
The storyconfirmed
The 1-year Treasury at 4.50% sits 50 basis points above the top of the target range
The page says “Range 3.75-4.00; 1 Yr 4.50 on 10/27 (Treasury). 4.50 - 4.00 = 50 bp”
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35
The storyconfirmed
and 62 above Monday's effective rate
The page says “EFFR 2026-10-26 3.88; 4.50 - 3.88 = 62 bp”
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36
The storyconfirmed
the 2-year rose while the 10-year and 30-year eased
The page says “2 Yr 4.68->4.70; 10 Yr 5.00->4.99; 30 Yr 5.31->5.30”
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37
The storyconfirmed
the 7-year note auction Thursday
The page says “Note, 7-Year, 91282CRV5, auction_date 2026-10-29”
Treasury (Fiscal Data auctions), at the passage · whole page
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38
The storyconfirmed
BEA's GDP and PCE releases at 8:30 a.m. ET [Thursday]
The page says “October 29, 8:30 AM - GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026; Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026”
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39
The tape before the open, item 1confirmed
2-year Treasury 4.70%, +2 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 27
The page says “Par table 2 Yr 4.68 -> 4.70; methodology: inputs obtained 'at or near 3:30 PM each trading day'”
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40
The tape before the open, item 2confirmed
5-year Treasury 4.82%, -2 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 27
The page says “5 Yr 4.84 -> 4.82”
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41
The tape before the open, item 3confirmed
10-year Treasury 4.99%, -1 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 27
The page says “10 Yr 5.00 -> 4.99”
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42
The tape before the open, item 4confirmed
30-year Treasury 5.30%, -1 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 27
The page says “30 Yr 5.31 -> 5.30”
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43
The tape before the open, item 5confirmed
1-year Treasury 4.50%, +3 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 27
The page says “1 Yr 4.47 -> 4.50”
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44
The tape before the open, item 6confirmed
2s10s spread 29 bp, -3 bp, Oct. 27
The page says “4.99-4.70 = 29; prior 5.00-4.68 = 32”
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45
The tape before the open, item 7confirmed
5-year breakeven 2.45%, -2 bp, Oct. 27
The page says “4.82-2.37 = 2.45; prior 4.84-2.37 = 2.47”
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46
The tape before the open, item 8confirmed
Fed funds effective 3.88%, 0 bp, Oct. 26 vs. Oct. 23
The page says “EFFR 2026-10-26 3.88; 2026-10-23 3.88”
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47
The tape before the open, item 9confirmed
SOFR 3.93%, +1 bp, Oct. 26 vs. Oct. 23
The page says “SOFR 2026-10-26 3.93; 2026-10-23 3.92”
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48
The tape before the open, item 10confirmed
EUR/USD (ECB) 1.1150, -0.0038, Oct. 27 vs. Oct. 26
The page says “2026-10-27 USD 1.115; 2026-10-26 USD 1.1188; difference -0.0038”
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49
The tape before the openunsupported
Fed funds and SOFR are Monday's rates; Tuesday's are published after this issue's cutoff
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50
The morning in four, item 1confirmed
At 5.34% on Tuesday, the 20-year yield sat 4 basis points above the 30-year's 5.30%
The page says “10/27/2026 20 Yr 5.34, 30 Yr 5.30”
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51
The morning in four, item 1confirmed
as it has on both days this week
The page says “10/26/2026 20 Yr 5.35, 30 Yr 5.31 (also 4 bp)”
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52
The morning in four, item 2confirmed
The ECB's dollar reference rate for the euro was 1.1150 on Tuesday
The page says “2026-10-27 USD 1.115”
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53
The morning in four, item 2confirmed
its fourth straight decline, from 1.1234 on Oct. 21
The page says “10-21 1.1234; 10-22 1.1205; 10-23 1.1193; 10-26 1.1188; 10-27 1.115”
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54
The morning in four, item 3confirmed
Census said on Tuesday that new orders for manufactured durable goods rose 1.8% in September to $345.4 billion
The page says “Tuesday, October 27, 2026 ... new orders 'increased $6.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $345.4 billion'”
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55
The morning in four, item 3confirmed
transportation equipment rose 4.6%
The page says “Transportation equipment ... up ... 4.6 percent to $119.8 billion”
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56
The morning in four, item 3confirmed
Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%
The page says “Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent”
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57
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
The Bank of Canada announces today at 9:45 a.m. ET with its Monetary Policy Report
The page says “October 28, 2026 – 09:45 ET Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report”
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58
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
The ECB meets today and Thursday, with a press conference after
The page says “28/10/2026 ... monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1); 29/10/2026 ... (Day 2), followed by press conference”
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59
The morning in four, item 4confirmed
the Bank of Japan meets Thursday and Friday
The page says “Oct. 29 (Thurs.), 30 (Fri.)”
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60
What to watch, item 1confirmed
9:45 a.m. Bank of Canada: the overnight rate target and the Monetary Policy Report
The page says “09:45 ET ... announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release ... Monetary Policy Report”
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61
What to watch, item 2confirmed
Day two of the Oct. 27-28 meeting; the statement sets the target range
The page says “October 27-28”
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62
What to watch, item 3confirmed
a second 2-year note sale today, after Monday's
The page says “Note, 2-Year, 91282CRU7, auction 2026-10-26; Note, 2-Year, 91282CRS2, auction 2026-10-28”
Treasury (Fiscal Data auctions), at the passage · whole page
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63
What to watch, item 3confirmed
and the 7-year on Thursday
The page says “Note, 7-Year, auction_date 2026-10-29”
Treasury (Fiscal Data auctions), at the passage · whole page
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64
What to watch, item 3confirmed
both issue Nov. 2
The page says “91282CRS2 issue_date 2026-11-02; 91282CRV5 issue_date 2026-11-02”
Treasury (Fiscal Data auctions), at the passage · whole page
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65
What to watch, item 4confirmed
Thu. 8:30 a.m.: BEA's advance third-quarter GDP estimate
The page says “October 29, 8:30 AM - GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026”
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66
What to watch, item 4confirmed
and September personal income and outlays
The page says “October 29, 8:30 AM - Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026”
Content from the New York Fed: © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
Data from the Bank of Canada, used under its terms of use.
Source: European Central Bank.
Source: Bank of Japan.