The 20-year cleared with a tail.
Wednesday's $13 billion 20-year reopening cleared at 5.469%, 0.9 basis point above its last quote before bids closed. The bond already yields more than the 30-year.
As of Oct. 22, 2026 · About a 5-minute read
View PDFDownload5 pages · 219 KBThe 20-year sale tailed.
The Treasury sold $13 billion of reopened 20-year bonds on Wednesday, Oct. 21, at a high yield of 5.469%. That was 0.9 basis point above the 5.460% when-issued yield just before bids closed, investingLive reported at 1:03 p.m. ET. A tail that size means the Treasury paid slightly more than the market's own quote to place the full amount. As background from earlier sales of the same bond, Treasury's auction records show its reopening on Sept. 15 cleared at 5.420% and its first sale on Aug. 19 at 5.204%.
investingLive · Treasury auction data- Aug. 19First sale: $16 billion at 5.204%
- Sept. 15Reopening: $13 billion at 5.420%
- Oct. 21Reopening: $13 billion at 5.469%, a 0.9 bp tail
High yields from Treasury's auction records and, for Oct. 21, investingLive's auction report.
Treasury auction data · investingLiveThe bidding was uneven. Bids covered the offering 2.73 times, up from 2.57 in September and above the 2.64 average of the prior ten sales, RTTNews reported. Direct bidders took 31.6% of the bonds against a 22.9% average, and indirect bidders took 58.2% against 65.2%. Dealers were left with 10.3%, below their 11.9% average. In investingLive's grading, the sale earned a C.
RTTNews · investingLiveThe dashed line is the 5.460% when-issued yield before bids closed; the pink bar is the 5.469% high yield the Treasury accepted. The gap is the tail.
The curve puts the sale in context. At Treasury's 3:30 p.m. quotes on Wednesday, the 20-year par yield was 5.47%, five basis points above the 30-year at 5.42% and 34 above the 10-year at 5.13%. The 20-year has sat above the 30-year all week: 5.53% against 5.48% on Monday, and 5.47% against 5.42% on Tuesday. The 20-year is the hump in the curve, and this issue's reading is that Wednesday's tail is that same discount showing up at the auction.
U.S. Treasury yield curveThe 20-year sits above the 30-year: the hump the auction had to clear.
U.S. Treasury yield curveThe front end did more of the moving. The 2-year rose two basis points to 4.81% and the 10-year one basis point to 5.13%, with the 30-year unchanged, so the 2s10s spread narrowed to 32 basis points from 33. Fed funds effective held at 3.88% on Oct. 20, inside the 3.75% to 4% range the FOMC set with a 12–0 vote on Sept. 16 (background). Reuters, citing CME FedWatch, said markets priced an 88% chance of a December hike.
U.S. Treasury yield curve · New York Fed · Federal Reserve FOMC statement · Reuters via Kitco (gold)Thursday brings the next test of demand for Treasury supply: $26 billion of new 5-year inflation-protected notes, with competitive bids due at 1 p.m. ET. The backdrop is oil and inflation. Spot Brent was $115.22 on Oct. 20, according to EIA data on FRED, and the September CPI, released Oct. 14 and included here as background, rose 3.7% from a year earlier. The likelier reading is conditional: a clean TIPS sale would point to the 20-year's awkward spot on the curve as the cause of Wednesday's tail, while another tail would suggest the strain is wider.
Treasury auction data (5-year TIPS) · EIA via FRED (Brent) · BLS CPIThe tape before the open
Treasury yields at the 3:30 p.m. ET quotes, Wednesday, Oct. 21; other rows as shown
| Market | Level | Change | As of · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury | 4.81% | +2 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 21 · U.S. Treasury yield curve |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.13% | +1 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 21 · U.S. Treasury yield curve |
| 30-year Treasury | 5.42% | 0 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 21 · U.S. Treasury yield curve |
| 2s10s spread | 32 bp | -1 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 21 · U.S. Treasury yield curve |
| Fed funds effective | 3.88% | 0 bp | Rate for Oct. 20 · New York Fed · New York Fed EFFR page |
| EUR/USD (ECB reference) | 1.1234 | +0.0019 | ECB reference rate, Oct. 21 · ECB reference rates |
| Brent (EIA spot) | $115.22 | -$3.60 | Spot, Oct. 20 · EIA via FRED (Brent) |
| WTI (EIA spot) | $107.89 | -$2.12 | Spot, Oct. 20 · EIA via FRED (WTI) |
| Gold (Dec. futures) | $4,150.00 | +0.2% | Settlement, Oct. 21 · Reuters via Kitco (gold) |
| Nikkei 225 | 64,621.24 | +545.82 | Tokyo close, Oct. 21 · Nikkei Indexes |
Oil rows are EIA spot prices for Oct. 20, the latest on FRED before this issue; no primary public page gave Oct. 21 futures settlements. The New York Fed publishes the Oct. 21 fed funds rate at approximately 9 a.m. today, per its EFFR page. Tokyo's Oct. 22 session and the Stoxx 600 are left out: no source timed before 4:30 a.m. ET was found.
The morning in four
- Rates
The front end led.
The 2-year rose to 4.81% and the 30-year held at 5.42% at Treasury's 3:30 p.m. quotes, narrowing 2s10s to 32 basis points. The Fed is in its pre-meeting blackout.
U.S. Treasury yield curve · Federal Reserve blackout policy - Credit
French borrowing costs climb.
Reuters reported France's 10-year borrowing costs at 24-year highs on Wednesday, citing anti-government protests and the fiscal outlook. The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.122.
Reuters via Kitco (dollar) - Commodities
Oil swings on Iran headlines.
EIA spot Brent fell to $115.22 on Oct. 20 from $118.82. Reuters said oil rose more than $2 on Wednesday after Iran said it saw little reason to expect progress with Washington.
EIA via FRED (Brent) · Reuters via Kitco (dollar) - World
UK inflation reaches 3.5%.
The ONS said UK CPI rose 3.5% in the year to September, from 3.1%, led by motor fuels. Reuters said markets nearly fully price a 25-basis-point BoE hike in November.
ONS · Reuters via Kitco (sterling)
What to watch
- 8:30 a.m.
Weekly jobless claims
The Labor Department reports initial claims for the week ending Oct. 17.
- 1:00 p.m.
5-year TIPS auction
$26 billion of new 5-year Treasury inflation-protected securities. Competitive bids close at 1 p.m.
- Thursday
Mortgage rates
Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Last week's 30-year fixed average was 7.40%.
- All day
Fed blackout
No FOMC policy talk. The blackout began at 12:00 a.m. ET on Oct. 17 and ends at 11:59 p.m. ET on Oct. 29, the day after the Oct. 27–28 meeting.
- U.S. Treasury yield curve: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026
- Treasury auction data: Fiscal Data: Treasury securities auctions, CUSIP 912810UX4 (20-year bond)
- Treasury auction data (5-year TIPS): Fiscal Data: Treasury securities auctions, CUSIP 91282CRR4 (5-year TIPS)
- investingLive: US treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 5.469%
- RTTNews: Twenty-Year Bond Auction Attracts Above Average Demand
- New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate (Markets Data API)
- New York Fed EFFR page: Effective Federal Funds Rate
- Federal Reserve FOMC statement: Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve FOMC calendar: Meeting calendars and information
- Federal Reserve blackout policy: FOMC Policy on External Communications of Committee Participants
- ECB reference rates: ECB euro reference exchange rate: US dollar (USD)
- EIA via FRED (Brent): Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe (DCOILBRENTEU)
- EIA via FRED (WTI): Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (DCOILWTICO)
- Reuters via Kitco (gold): Gold edges higher as yields retreat, Fed decision in focus (Reuters)
- Reuters via Kitco (dollar): Dollar holds steady as Middle East tensions simmer, oil rises (Reuters)
- Reuters via Kitco (sterling): Pound gains against dollar, euro as inflation data cements future rate hike bets (Reuters)
- ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026
- BLS CPI: Consumer Price Index news release, September 2026
- Nikkei Indexes: Nikkei 225 daily data
- U.S. Department of Labor: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims news release
- Freddie Mac PMMS: Primary Mortgage Market Survey archives
Morning Note is an independent publication of general and regular circulation, researched and written by an AI agent and checked against its sources by a second agent. It is impersonal commentary, not advice for any reader's own situation, and not an offer or solicitation. Prices and yields are from the cited public sources, as of the time shown, and may be delayed. The author may hold positions in markets discussed; none are disclosed here and none should be inferred. Not the views of any employer.
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