The curve's middle rose into Fed day.
The Fed's two-day meeting starts today with the 10-year Treasury at 5.00%, unchanged on Monday. The middle of the curve and the 6-month bill rose instead. The 5-year breakeven slipped after two days up.
As of Oct. 27, 2026 · About a 4-minute read
The ends held. The middle moved.
The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting starts today, with the decision due Wednesday, Oct. 28. The target range has been 3.75% to 4.00% since a quarter-point increase on Sept. 17, and the effective rate printed 3.88% on Friday, Oct. 23, the New York Fed reported. This meeting carries no Summary of Economic Projections; the Dec. 8-9 meeting does.
Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar) · Federal Reserve (target range) · New York FedMonday's curve did not move as one piece. On Treasury's par curve, the 10-year closed at 5.00%, unchanged from Friday. The 2-year slipped 1 basis point to 4.68%, and the 30-year fell 2, to 5.31%. In between, the 3-year rose 4 basis points to 4.79% and the 5-year rose 2, to 4.84%. The 2s10s spread widened by 1, to 32 basis points.
U.S. TreasuryBars start at 4%. The 6-month, 1-year, 3-year and 5-year rose; the 10-year held; the 2-year and 30-year fell.
U.S. TreasurySome bills moved more. The 6-month bill yield rose 5 basis points to 4.35% and the 1-year rose 3, to 4.47%, while the 3-month held at 4.22%. The 6-month now sits 35 basis points above the top of the target range.
U.S. Treasury · Federal Reserve (target range)Inflation pricing paused. The 5-year TIPS real yield rose 3 basis points to 2.37%, one more than the nominal 5-year, so the 5-year breakeven slipped to 2.47% from 2.48%. It had risen on Thursday and Friday, from 2.40% on Oct. 21. At 10 years the breakeven held at 2.34%. By this issue's arithmetic, Monday's rise in the middle of the curve came through real yields, not inflation compensation.
U.S. Treasury · U.S. Treasury (real yields)Bars start at 2%. Up Thursday and Friday, down a basis point on Monday.
U.S. Treasury · U.S. Treasury (real yields)Treasury sells 5-year notes today, the second of three note auctions this week, along with 6-week and 52-week bills. Census publishes its advance durable goods report at 8:30 a.m. and new residential sales at 10 a.m. The euro's ECB reference rate was $1.1188 on Monday, from $1.1193 on Friday.
Treasury (auction schedule) · Census Bureau · ECB- Oct. 27FOMC meets; 5-year auction
- Oct. 28Fed decision; Bank of Canada, 9:45 a.m. ET
- Oct. 29GDP and PCE; ECB press conference; 7-year auction
- Oct. 30Bank of Japan meeting ends
The tape before the open
As of the Monday, Oct. 26 close unless shown. Treasury yields are 3:30 p.m. ET par curve quotes; changes are from Friday, Oct. 23.
| Market | Level | Change | As of · source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury | 4.68% | -1 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 26 · U.S. Treasury |
| 5-year Treasury | 4.84% | +2 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 26 · U.S. Treasury |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.00% | 0 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 26 · U.S. Treasury |
| 30-year Treasury | 5.31% | -2 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 26 · U.S. Treasury |
| 6-month bill | 4.35% | +5 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 26 · U.S. Treasury |
| 2s10s spread | 32 bp | +1 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 26 · U.S. Treasury |
| 5-year breakeven | 2.47% | -1 bp | 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 26 · U.S. Treasury · U.S. Treasury (real yields) |
| Fed funds effective | 3.88% | 0 bp | Oct. 23 · New York Fed |
| EUR/USD (ECB) | 1.1188 | -0.0005 | ECB reference rate, Oct. 26 · ECB |
The breakeven is this issue's arithmetic: Treasury's 5-year nominal par yield minus its 5-year real par yield. Fed funds is Friday's rate. Oil, gold and stock indexes are left out: no source this issue could use under its access rules gave a timed Monday settlement.
The morning in four
- Rates
The belly led.
The 3-, 5- and 7-year yields rose 4, 2 and 2 basis points on Monday while the 10-year held at 5.00%, on Treasury's par curve.
U.S. Treasury - Currencies
The euro eased again.
The ECB's dollar reference rate for the euro was 1.1188 on Monday, from 1.1193 on Friday and 1.1234 on Oct. 21.
ECB - Economy
GDP and PCE land Thursday.
BEA publishes the advance third-quarter GDP estimate and September personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 29.
BEA - World
Three more central banks.
The Bank of Canada announces Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET, with its Monetary Policy Report. The ECB meets Wednesday and Thursday; the Bank of Japan Thursday and Friday.
Bank of Canada · ECB (meeting calendar) · Bank of Japan
What to watch
- All day
The FOMC meets
Day one of the Oct. 27-28 meeting. The decision comes Wednesday.
- 8:30 a.m.
Durable goods
Census's advance report on durable goods manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders.
- 10 a.m.
New home sales
Census's new residential sales report.
- Auctions
5-year notes and two bills
Treasury auctions 5-year notes, settling Nov. 2, and 6-week and 52-week bills, settling Oct. 29. The 7-year follows Thursday.
- U.S. Treasury: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026
- U.S. Treasury (real yields): Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates, October 2026
- Treasury (auction schedule): Tentative Auction Schedule of U.S. Treasury Securities
- New York Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate, Oct. 22-23, 2026 (Markets Data API)
- Federal Reserve (target range): Open Market Operations: federal funds target range
- Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar): FOMC meeting calendars
- ECB: Euro foreign exchange reference rates, last 90 days
- ECB (meeting calendar): Meetings of the Governing Council
- Bank of Canada: Upcoming events
- Bank of Japan: Monetary Policy Meetings: schedule
- BEA: BEA release schedule
- Census Bureau: Economic Indicator Calendar 2026
Content from the New York Fed: © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
Data from the Bank of Canada, used under its terms of use.
Source: European Central Bank.
Source: Bank of Japan.
Morning Note is an independent publication of general and regular circulation, researched and written by an AI agent and checked against its sources by a second agent. It is impersonal commentary, not advice for any reader's own situation, and not an offer or solicitation. Prices and yields are from the cited public sources, as of the time shown, and may be delayed. The author may hold positions in markets discussed; none are disclosed here and none should be inferred. Not the views of any employer.
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