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Morning Note · Markets No. 07 · Oct. 27, 2026 · Read the issue

The record for this issue

The curve's middle rose into Fed day.

63 claims in the draft, each tested by a second agent against the page it cites, on Oct. 27, 2026. 61 held; 2 did not and were fixed or cut before this went out.

61 confirmed 1 wrong, fixed or cut 1 unsupported, fixed or cut
  1. 01
    dek

    The Fed's two-day meeting starts today (Oct. 27)

    The page says “2026 meetings: ... October 27-28”

    Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar)

    confirmed
  2. 02
    dek

    10-year Treasury at 5.00%, unchanged on Monday

    The page says “10 Yr: 10/23/2026 5.00; 10/26/2026 5.00”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  3. 03
    dek

    The middle of the curve and the 6-month bill rose

    The page says “6 Mo 4.30 -> 4.35; 3 Yr 4.75 -> 4.79; 5 Yr 4.82 -> 4.84; 7 Yr 4.89 -> 4.91 (10/23 -> 10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  4. 04
    dek

    The 5-year breakeven slipped after two days up

    The page says “Nominal 5 Yr minus real 5 YR: 10/21 4.95-2.55=2.40; 10/22 4.78-2.33=2.45; 10/23 4.82-2.34=2.48; 10/26 4.84-2.37=2.47”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  5. 05
    summary

    3-year rose 4 bp and the 6-month bill 5 bp Monday

    The page says “3 Yr 4.75 -> 4.79; 6 Mo 4.30 -> 4.35”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  6. 06
    summary

    Treasury sells 5-year notes today

    The page says “5-Year NOTE Thursday, October 22, 2026 Tuesday, October 27, 2026 Monday, November 02, 2026”

    Treasury (auction schedule), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  7. 07
    The story

    FOMC decision due Wednesday, Oct. 28

    The page says “October 27-28”

    Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar)

    confirmed
  8. 08
    The story

    Target range 3.75% to 4.00% since a quarter-point increase on Sept. 17

    The page says “2026 September 17, Increase 25, Level 3.75-4.00”

    Federal Reserve (target range), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  9. 09
    The story

    Effective rate printed 3.88% on Friday, Oct. 23, per the New York Fed

    The page says “"effectiveDate": "2026-10-23", "type": "EFFR", "percentRate": 3.88”

    New York Fed, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  10. 10
    The story

    This meeting has no Summary of Economic Projections; the Dec. 8-9 meeting does

    The page says “October 27-28 (no asterisk); December 8-9* ; * Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections”

    Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  11. 11
    The story

    10-year closed at 5.00%, unchanged from Friday

    The page says “10 Yr: 5.00 (10/23), 5.00 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  12. 12
    The story

    2-year slipped 1 bp to 4.68%

    The page says “2 Yr: 4.69 (10/23), 4.68 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  13. 13
    The story

    30-year fell 2 bp to 5.31%

    The page says “30 Yr: 5.33 (10/23), 5.31 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  14. 14
    The story

    3-year rose 4 bp to 4.79%

    The page says “3 Yr: 4.75 (10/23), 4.79 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  15. 15
    The story

    5-year rose 2 bp to 4.84%

    The page says “5 Yr: 4.82 (10/23), 4.84 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  16. 16
    The story

    2s10s spread widened by 1 to 32 bp

    The page says “10/26: 5.00 - 4.68 = 0.32; 10/23: 5.00 - 4.69 = 0.31”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  17. 17
    The story

    6-month bill rose 5 bp to 4.35%

    The page says “6 Mo: 4.30 (10/23), 4.35 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  18. 18
    The story

    1-year rose 3 bp to 4.47%

    The page says “1 Yr: 4.44 (10/23), 4.47 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  19. 19
    The story

    3-month held at 4.22%

    The page says “3 Mo: 4.22 (10/23), 4.22 (10/26)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  20. 20
    The story

    6-month sits 35 bp above the top of the target range

    The page says “Level 3.75-4.00 (top 4.00); Treasury 6 Mo 4.35 on 10/26: 4.35 - 4.00 = 0.35”

    Federal Reserve (target range), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  21. 21
    The story

    The rises came in 4-month to 1-year bills and in 3- to 7-year notes, not at the 10- or 30-year; the 2-year was the exception in between

    The page says “1.5 Mo: 4.11 (10/23), 4.13 (10/26); 2 Mo: 4.16 (10/23), 4.18 (10/26); 4 Mo 4.30 -> 4.32; 7 Yr 4.89 -> 4.91”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    wrong
  22. 22
    The story

    5-year TIPS real yield rose 3 bp to 2.37%, one more than the nominal 5-year

    The page says “5 YR real: 2.34 (10/23), 2.37 (10/26); nominal 5 Yr +2”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  23. 23
    The story

    5-year breakeven slipped to 2.47% from 2.48%

    The page says “10/26: 4.84 - 2.37 = 2.47; 10/23: 4.82 - 2.34 = 2.48”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  24. 24
    The story

    Breakeven rose Thursday and Friday, from 2.40% on Oct. 21

    The page says “10/21: 4.95 - 2.55 = 2.40; 10/22 (Thu): 4.78 - 2.33 = 2.45; 10/23 (Fri): 4.82 - 2.34 = 2.48”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  25. 25
    The story

    10-year breakeven held at 2.34%

    The page says “10 YR real 2.66 on 10/23 and 10/26; nominal 10 Yr 5.00 both days: 5.00 - 2.66 = 2.34”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  26. 26
    The story

    Treasury sells 5-year notes today, the second of three note auctions this week

    The page says “2-Year NOTE ... Monday, October 26, 2026; 5-Year NOTE ... Tuesday, October 27, 2026; 7-Year NOTE ... Thursday, October 29, 2026 (the 2-Year FRN on Oct. 28 is listed as FRN, not NOTE)”

    Treasury (auction schedule)

    confirmed
  27. 27
    The story

    Along with 6-week and 52-week bills today

    The page says “6-Week BILL Thursday, October 22, 2026 Tuesday, October 27, 2026 ...; 52-Week BILL Thursday, October 22, 2026 Tuesday, October 27, 2026”

    Treasury (auction schedule), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  28. 28
    The story

    Census advance durable goods report at 8:30 a.m.

    The page says “October 27, 2026 at 8:30 AM: Advance Report on Durable Goods--Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders”

    Census Bureau, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  29. 29
    The story

    New residential sales at 10 a.m.

    The page says “October 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM: New Residential Sales”

    Census Bureau, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  30. 30
    The story

    ECB reference rate $1.1188 Monday, from $1.1193 Friday

    The page says “2026-10-26 USD rate="1.1188"; 2026-10-23 USD rate="1.1193"”

    ECB, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  31. 31
    The story

    Treasury par yields at 3:30 p.m. ET, Oct. 23 and Oct. 26

    The page says “quotations are obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM each trading day”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  32. 32
    The story

    Oct. 23: 6-month 4.30, 1-year 4.44, 2-year 4.69, 3-year 4.75, 5-year 4.82, 10-year 5.00, 30-year 5.33

    The page says “10/23/2026: 6 Mo 4.30, 1 Yr 4.44, 2 Yr 4.69, 3 Yr 4.75, 5 Yr 4.82, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.33”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  33. 33
    The story

    Oct. 26: 6-month 4.35, 1-year 4.47, 2-year 4.68, 3-year 4.79, 5-year 4.84, 10-year 5.00, 30-year 5.31

    The page says “10/26/2026: 6 Mo 4.35, 1 Yr 4.47, 2 Yr 4.68, 3 Yr 4.79, 5 Yr 4.84, 10 Yr 5.00, 30 Yr 5.31”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  34. 34
    The story

    6-month, 1-year, 3-year and 5-year rose; 10-year held; 2-year and 30-year fell

    The page says “Changes 10/23 -> 10/26 for the plotted tenors: +5, +3, -1, +4, +2, 0, -2 bp”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  35. 35
    The story

    5-year breakeven 2.40 (Oct. 21), 2.45 (Oct. 22), 2.48 (Oct. 23), 2.47 (Oct. 26)

    The page says “Nominal 5 Yr 4.95/4.78/4.82/4.84 minus real 5 YR 2.55/2.33/2.34/2.37”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  36. 36
    The story

    Up Thursday and Friday, down a basis point on Monday

    The page says “2.40 -> 2.45 -> 2.48 -> 2.47”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  37. 37
    The story

    Four central banks in four days

    The page says “Fed Oct. 27-28; Bank of Canada Oct. 28; ECB Oct. 28-29; BoJ "Oct. 29 (Thurs.), 30 (Fri.)"”

    Bank of Japan, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  38. 38
    The story, step 1

    Oct. 27: FOMC meets; 5-year auction

    The page says “5-Year NOTE ... Tuesday, October 27, 2026; FOMC October 27-28”

    Treasury (auction schedule)

    confirmed
  39. 39
    The story, step 2

    Oct. 28: Fed decision; Bank of Canada, 9:45 a.m. ET

    The page says “October 28, 2026 – 09:45 (ET) Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report”

    Bank of Canada, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  40. 40
    The story, step 3

    Oct. 29: GDP and PCE; ECB press conference; 7-year auction

    The page says “October 29, 8:30 AM GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026; Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026. ECB: 29/10/2026 Press conference following the Governing Council meeting. Treasury: 7-Year NOTE ... Thursday,…”

    BEA, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  41. 41
    The story, step 4

    Oct. 30: Bank of Japan meeting ends

    The page says “Oct. 29 (Thurs.), 30 (Fri.)”

    Bank of Japan, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  42. 42
    The tape before the open, item 1

    2-year Treasury 4.68%, -1 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 26

    The page says “2 Yr 4.69 (10/23) -> 4.68 (10/26); quotes at or near 3:30 PM”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  43. 43
    The tape before the open, item 2

    5-year Treasury 4.84%, +2 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 26

    The page says “5 Yr 4.82 -> 4.84”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  44. 44
    The tape before the open, item 3

    10-year Treasury 5.00%, 0 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 26

    The page says “10 Yr 5.00 -> 5.00”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  45. 45
    The tape before the open, item 4

    30-year Treasury 5.31%, -2 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 26

    The page says “30 Yr 5.33 -> 5.31”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  46. 46
    The tape before the open, item 5

    6-month bill 4.35%, +5 bp, 3:30 p.m. ET Oct. 26

    The page says “6 Mo 4.30 -> 4.35”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  47. 47
    The tape before the open, item 6

    2s10s spread 32 bp, +1 bp

    The page says “5.00 - 4.68 = 32 bp (10/26); 5.00 - 4.69 = 31 bp (10/23)”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  48. 48
    The tape before the open, item 7

    5-year breakeven 2.47%, -1 bp

    The page says “4.84 - 2.37 = 2.47 (10/26); 4.82 - 2.34 = 2.48 (10/23)”

    U.S. Treasury (real yields), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  49. 49
    The tape before the open, item 8

    Fed funds effective 3.88%, 0 bp, as of Oct. 23

    The page says “2026-10-23 EFFR percentRate 3.88; 2026-10-22 EFFR percentRate 3.88”

    New York Fed, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  50. 50
    The tape before the open, item 9

    EUR/USD (ECB) 1.1188, -0.0005, ECB reference rate Oct. 26

    The page says “2026-10-26 rate="1.1188"; 2026-10-23 rate="1.1193"”

    ECB, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  51. 51
    The tape before the open

    Fed funds is Friday's rate, the latest published at this hour

    New York Fed

    unsupported
  52. 52
    The morning in four, item 1

    3-, 5- and 7-year yields rose 4, 2 and 2 bp Monday; 10-year held at 5.00%

    The page says “3 Yr 4.75 -> 4.79; 5 Yr 4.82 -> 4.84; 7 Yr 4.89 -> 4.91; 10 Yr 5.00 -> 5.00”

    U.S. Treasury, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  53. 53
    The morning in four, item 2

    ECB dollar reference rate 1.1188 Monday, from 1.1193 Friday and 1.1234 on Oct. 21

    The page says “2026-10-26 1.1188; 2026-10-23 1.1193; 2026-10-21 1.1234”

    ECB, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  54. 54
    The morning in four, item 3

    BEA publishes advance Q3 GDP and September personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 29

    The page says “October 29, 8:30 AM: GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026; Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026”

    BEA, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  55. 55
    The morning in four, item 4

    Bank of Canada announces Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET, with its Monetary Policy Report

    The page says “October 28, 2026 – 09:45 (ET) Interest Rate Announcement and Monetary Policy Report”

    Bank of Canada, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  56. 56
    The morning in four, item 4

    The ECB meets Wednesday and Thursday

    The page says “28/10/2026 Governing Council of the ECB: monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt (Day 1); 29/10/2026 ... (Day 2), followed by press conference”

    ECB (meeting calendar), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  57. 57
    The morning in four, item 4

    The Bank of Japan meets Thursday and Friday

    The page says “Oct. 29 (Thurs.), 30 (Fri.)”

    Bank of Japan, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  58. 58
    What to watch, item 1

    Day one of the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting; decision Wednesday

    The page says “October 27-28”

    Federal Reserve (FOMC calendar)

    confirmed
  59. 59
    What to watch, item 2

    8:30 a.m.: Census advance report on durable goods manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders

    The page says “October 27, 2026 at 8:30 AM: Advance Report on Durable Goods--Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders”

    Census Bureau, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  60. 60
    What to watch, item 3

    10 a.m.: Census new residential sales report

    The page says “October 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM: New Residential Sales”

    Census Bureau, at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  61. 61
    What to watch, item 4

    5-year notes auctioned today, settling Nov. 2

    The page says “5-Year NOTE Thursday, October 22, 2026 Tuesday, October 27, 2026 Monday, November 02, 2026”

    Treasury (auction schedule), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed
  62. 62
    What to watch, item 4

    6-week and 52-week bills auctioned today, settling Oct. 29

    The page says “6-Week BILL ... Tuesday, October 27, 2026 Thursday, October 29, 2026; 52-Week BILL ... Tuesday, October 27, 2026 Thursday, October 29, 2026”

    Treasury (auction schedule)

    confirmed
  63. 63
    What to watch, item 4

    The 7-year follows Thursday

    The page says “7-Year NOTE Thursday, October 22, 2026 Thursday, October 29, 2026 Monday, November 02, 2026”

    Treasury (auction schedule), at the passage · whole page

    confirmed

Content from the New York Fed: © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.

Data from the Bank of Canada, used under its terms of use.

Source: European Central Bank.

Source: Bank of Japan.

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