Yields rise on both sides of the ocean.

Treasuries fell on Monday along with most of what carries a government's name. By the Treasury Department's 3:30 p.m. ET read, the 2-year note yielded 4.77%, the 10-year 5.15% and the 30-year 5.48%, up 3, 6 and 5 basis points from Friday. The gap between the 2-year and the 10-year widened to 38 basis points from 35. AP had the 10-year at 5.14% late in the day and noted it topped 5.30% earlier this month, its highest since 2002.

The push came from Paris. Protests over the cost of living and plans to cut public spending turned violent across France over the weekend. Sharecast's morning report counted at least 2,400 arrests, shops smashed and public buildings burned, with protests spreading to Spain, Italy and Portugal. By 7:32 a.m. GMT the French 10-year yield was up 5 basis points at 4.84%, its spread over German Bunds out to about 143 basis points, and the CAC 40 down 1.17%. AP's account of the close had European indexes down more than 1% and French yields rising by more than German ones, on worries about a budget already strained and the chance that the government answers the streets with more spending.

On this side of the water the AI trade bounced and little else did. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,690.73 after its worst week since June; the Nasdaq added 1.1% and the Dow slipped 0.1%, while most stocks outside AI and technology fell. AP's framing is the one that matters on this desk: last week's AI selloff was about the rising cost of borrowing, because much of the build-out is financed with debt. CoreWeave, which rents out chips, lost 25.2% last week and closed Monday down 0.4% after swinging from a gain of more than 7% to a loss of 3.5%. South Korea's Kospi rose 1.8% after a 14.5% drop last week.

One line in Treasury's own table is worth a look before Wednesday. The 20-year closed at 5.53%, above the 30-year's 5.48%; on Friday it was 5.47% against 5.43%. The 5-year sat at 4.94%, from 4.89%. Treasury's August refunding statement set October's 20-year auction at $13 billion, the smallest coupon size on its schedule, and Investrade's calendar puts the auction at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday. An auction that small, into a yield already above the long bond, is the week's cleanest test of appetite for duration. That is this issue's reading, not Treasury's.

Oil gave back a little and stayed high. Brent settled at $109.55 a barrel, down 0.3%, after trading between $107 and $110; AP has it moving between $97 and $110 this month, on uncertainty about when the war with Iran will let the energy industry return to normal. Early Monday Brent was down 2.1% at $107.55 and WTI down 1.9% at $97.19, after the executive order signed Friday, Oct. 16 that implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 and, for now, waives its 500% tariff on goods from Russia and the 100% tariffs on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas. The waivers hold until the President or the Secretary of State decides otherwise, with no expiry written in. AP's early report recalled that the President said earlier in October he had reached a diesel deal with Russia to bring down fuel prices.

The Fed is silent by rule. Its last move was a quarter-point increase on Sept. 16 to a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent, on a 12–0 vote, with a statement that called inflation elevated. The next meeting is Oct. 27–28. The blackout begins at midnight the second Saturday before a meeting, so it started Oct. 17 and runs through Oct. 29; there are no speakers to move the front end this week. Fed funds traded at 3.88% on Friday, the last print the New York Fed had published before this issue closed. Monday's arrives at about 9 a.m. ET.